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Starforce Enhancement

General MapleStory Forum Talk about MapleStory in general

littlegeek Level 172 Scania Angelic Buster 4
Here's a spreadsheet: [url=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vVsFMwrjpypXuO9RqHvmWQLXHjdOOe7JxHOXj_3I3oY/edit?usp=sharing]google sheets[/url]

I made this spreadsheet (someone else made a simulator, but I can't find it, and calculation produces better averages), and found out some "fun" facts about star force.
  1. 5 star tyrant is actually more expensive than 15 star CRA
  2. 6 star Nova is only slightly cheaper than 15 star CRA
  3. at 200m:1k NX:mesos, Nexon would have trouble buying enough NX to 11 star tyrant gear.
  4. at that same ratio, there isn't enough money in the world to 12 star tyrant (nvm the mesos).
  5. 13+ stars on tyrant is as stupid to try for as it looks.
  6. 15 star tyrant requires more mesos than there are particles in the (known) universe.

edit: this doesn't account for the little game, because I have no idea what that actually does. That probably accounts for discrepancies. If someone can find fault with the actual math, please let me know.

edit2: I rebuilt the math in my sheet; now the cost to get the next star is:

the expected number of tries to succeed * (the cost of attempting + the drop chance * the cost of getting from current - 1 to here + the boom chance * the total cost to here)

which is, I believe, correct.
The corrected formula produces MUCH lower numbers, so many of my "fun facts" are fiction, though 5 is completely correct, as we all knew. Here's the updated number of mesos to 15 star tyrant, not including new pieces to replace old: 25,617,913,857,047,700, which is definitely more than anyone has, but is not more than have existed (?).

edit3: I gave up on actually working out the formulas involved, so I just ran a simulator and posted that data instead. Enjoy.
Posted: January 2015 Permalink

Replies

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uw0tm9 Level 200 Bera Luminous 4
It's a good start

I think for consistent and predictability, we can disregard that mini-game and assume the default rates
Jan 29 2015
nitsua2789 Level 250 Broa Evan 10th Growth Emcy Guild See what games, anime & art nitsua2789 is intonitsua2789
.5*.5*.45*.4*.4=1/55.55...

55.55...*275m = around 15b.

HOWEVER, it still fails this basic sanity check. Sorry all, I need to work on this some. Carry on.[/quote]

It would be 55.55 * 58m (the cost of each attempt). That's around 2.5b-3b. Also you're using the KMS numbers, the GMS numbers are different.
Jan 29 2015
littlegeek Level 172 Scania Angelic Buster 4
The sheet has been updated with less stupid math. I've made it available to view once more, because I think it's actually accurate now.

Also, I'm using the numbers from [url=http://maplestory.nexon.net/news/updates/update-notes/00IBv/v-157-shining-star-update-notes#enhance]the GMS update notes[/url]
Jan 29 2015
littlegeek Level 172 Scania Angelic Buster 4
What about the 100% chance to pass if you degrade 2 in a row? On my tyrants I never spent more then 1.5b getting to 5 stars. 45b for a 10 star? suuure.[/quote]

...and we have a winner. I knew I was forgetting something
And that hits the edge of my probability knowledge. I honestly don't know how to write that into the formulas. Unless somebody with more math than me has a suggestion, I don't think I'll be able to make this spreadsheet work.
Jan 29 2015
Lecarde Level 161 Windia Beginner Herbs Guild
@littlegeek: People might be able to help you if you would show the formulas used. All I can see is the output, telling me that it will cost me 350mil to 13 star my Risk holderr
Jan 29 2015
David0696 Level 213 Windia Hero
If I knew coding, I would just make a simulator and run it thousands of times.
I am not sure how to work with the feature where if you fail two times in a row, you are guaranteed a success, if you were to do the math for it. Of course if you were coding, you would just make it a rule.
Jan 29 2015
From a programming perspective, couldn't you do the following? :

Set up the loop to do the following:
number of fail = 0
success = 0
for or while or w/e to start the simulator as many times as w/e condition is needed
function to check value of number_of_fail, call it check_value
the simulator function, call it simulate_enchant
the function that checks if its a fail or pass then adds 1 or 0 to number_of_fails, count_result

the functions should be something like
def check_value :
if number_of_fail == 2
return success += 1
else: return success = 0

def simulate_enchant:
if success == 0
the lines of code for simulating the enchant process
else: return w/e way youre using to keep track of number of stars for a given equip

and include number_of_fail = 0 whenever you pass enchant in the if and else parts of this function

def count_result:
if pass
return number_of_fail = 0
else
return number_of_fail += 1

Not an expert of programming but it should be roughly outlined like this I would think
also, not sure how transferable the if and else conditions are to an excel based formula but the idea should be the same
Jan 29 2015
littlegeek Level 172 Scania Angelic Buster 4
I decided to simulate it a few (hundred) times to get a general idea of the numbers involved. I added the data from that to the bottom of the spreadsheet, and posted the source code in a different sheet (click the tab at the bottom if you speak Java). The numbers seem a lot closer to what people actually claim happens, though the data for 14 stars to 15 is a bit weird because it kept running into a time cutoff; my program did not sim more than 100,000,000 tries to gain a star. I feel like this is reasonable, given that that would take YEARS if you could do it continuously, as well as an absurd number of mesos.
Jan 30 2015
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