General

Violet cubes and probability

Aside from the controversial effect of these cubes in terms of the game, I think we have to do the math to really appreciate just how game changing these cubes are.

http://i.imgur.com/NHXxk74.png

EDIT: the above link is incorrect, here are the correct calculations, http://i.imgur.com/u7H9WyF.png

TL;DR
1 violet cube = 20 red cubes when cubing for 3 lines
1 violet cubes = 15 red cubes when cubing for 2 lines

EDIT:
I have been informed that I have made an error in the calculation, long story short,
for 3 lines 1 violet = 15-18 reds.
for 2 lines 1 violet = 11-13 reds

August 19, 2015

31 Comments • Newest first

silverphoenix

[quote=duriel123]Well I mean, blacks do cost more....
I'm still not sure to this day if blacks or reds are better.[/quote]

Hmm well solely based on anecdotal evidence, it really seems like black cubes are better for tier ups.

Reply August 19, 2015
duriel123

[quote=silverphoenix]Let me rephrase that. Nobody who's in their right mind uses red cubes for tier ups. Especially when it explicitly states in the black cube description that they have a higher tier up rate than red cubes. http://prntscr.com/86kg5e[/quote]
Well I mean, blacks do cost more....
I'm still not sure to this day if blacks or reds are better.

Reply August 19, 2015
silverphoenix

[quote=ichii]Numerous cubing videos state otherwise. [/quote]

Let me rephrase that. Nobody who's in their right mind uses red cubes for tier ups. Especially when it explicitly states in the black cube description that they have a higher tier up rate than red cubes. http://prntscr.com/86kg5e

Reply August 19, 2015
duriel123

[quote=lazypando]Why are you treating 1,2,3,4 as 4 possible outcomes. We don't care about the different ways of being useful, only that it is or is not useful. So there are two possible outcomes: useful or not. The cube is useful if you get 3,4,5, or 6 useful lines. So you're missing the probabilities of 4,5,and 6 useful lines.[/quote]
Indeed you are correct, I forgot to consider the fact that the choice of lines is not random and somehow got confused along the way.
Thank you all for calling out my brainfart there, luckily the numbers weren't far off in the end so at least I didn't spread ridiculously inaccurate information.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
Ichii

[quote=silverphoenix]Nobody uses red cubes for tiering up though.[/quote]

Numerous cubing videos state otherwise.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
silverphoenix

[quote=ichii]@zcrimsyn You'd still need something like red cubes to get to legendary and some people would rather buy them with nx than go for meister cubes. There's also the fact that black cubes save your current potential while violets do not. Basically violet cubes are only really worthwhile when cubing for 3 initial good legendary lines or 3 perfect legendary lines. Red and black cubes will still be useful and having multiple cubing options never hurt anyone. [/quote]

Nobody uses red cubes for tiering up though.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
lazypando

[quote=duriel123]@wisdomwods, The equation you posted earlier is actually also correct, you simply used my method for the undesirable results as opposed to the desirable ones. If we crunch in the numbers we should end up with the same thing. I just figured the one I used was simpler to solve.
If line 1,2,3,4 are useful, you are treating that as 1 outcome. I would treat 1,2,3,4 as 4 possible outcomes since you can chose 4 different combinations to end up with useful lines.[/quote]

Why are you treating 1,2,3,4 as 4 possible outcomes. We don't care about the different ways of being useful, only that it is or is not useful. So there are two possible outcomes: useful or not. The cube is useful if you get 3,4,5, or 6 useful lines. So you're missing the probabilities of 4,5,and 6 useful lines.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
duriel123

[quote=rachelll]He's right, you did make a mistake in which you found only the probability to get exactly 3 lines out of 6 thus the combination 6 take 3. 4 lines of stats out of 6 would be acceptable too, so would 5 lines out of 6 and etc. You calculation does not reflect that. Also, you even did the calculations for exactly 3 lines wrong: you forgot the other 3 lines in which they can be anything but useful (1-k) so it would be 6C3*k^3*(1-k)^3 to get exactly 3 useful line in which order does not matter.[/quote]
After looking at it again, you are correct. I apologize to @wisdomwods, he was right. My initial process was that removing the (1-k)^3 factor removes the restriction on the remaining 3 lines, but now that I think about it, it doesnt work that way.

For 3 lines the probability should have been , k^6 + k^5(1-k)(6) + k^4(1-k)^2(15) + k^3(1-k)^3(20) = 20k^3 -45k^4 + 36k^5 - 10k^6
If k is 1/10, then the probability is 15.5 times higher, if it is 1/15, it is 17 times higher, if it is 1/20 then it is 17.75 times higher.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
saipanda

they seem to really benefit those who already have 3 lined legendary gear.

so at least if you blew your wallet tiering up your gear last sale, buying these won't be as sad xD

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
Ichii

@zcrimsyn You'd still need something like red cubes to get to legendary and some people would rather buy them with nx than go for meister cubes. There's also the fact that black cubes save your current potential while violets do not. Basically violet cubes are only really worthwhile when cubing for 3 initial good legendary lines or 3 perfect legendary lines. Red and black cubes will still be useful and having multiple cubing options never hurt anyone.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
GarrettsHot

oooo i math

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
zCrimsyn

[quote=games]Are Violet Cubes are perma thing? Or just this week?[/quote]

Most likely going to be a perma item in the future. It states that it's an introductory sale. Which means they are introducing these cubes to see how it goes. Then later on release it as a perma cube. They should just remove the black and red cubes and keep the violet cubes. Put 5 violet cubes for the reward shop too. There really no need for red and black cubes if violet cubes are cheaper and easier to obtain the stats you want.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
Rachelll

[quote=duriel123]Whether you get 3 or more lines does not matter, this is because the once you have chosen 3 lines and each line is useful, whether or not the other lines are useful do not matter. For example, if lines 1,3,4,and 6 are useful, there are 4 ways to chose 3 of the 4, which are:

1,3,4
1,4,6
1,3,6
1,3,4

Each of these cases are considered in the combinatoric 6C3.

TO put it another way, we only need to consider all the combinations that 3 useful lines can appear in lines 1-6, and since each of those cases are equally likely and completely symmetric, we can multiply the total number of combinations by the probability of any one of those combinations happening, thus 6C3 * k^3.[/quote]

He's right, you did make a mistake in which you found only the probability to get exactly 3 lines out of 6 thus the combination 6 take 3. 4 lines of stats out of 6 would be acceptable too, so would 5 lines out of 6 and etc. You calculation does not reflect that. Also, you even did the calculations for exactly 3 lines wrong: you forgot the other 3 lines in which they can be anything but useful (1-k) so it would be 6C3*k^3*(1-k)^3 to get exactly 3 useful line in which order does not matter.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
Games

Are Violet Cubes are perma thing? Or just this week?

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
zenoname

How would spending 1000$ instead of 100$ make anything faster. You could very simply drop 1000$ in one go and cap in 1-2 days. It comes back to the same just a cheaper alternative...

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
zCrimsyn

It's so funny how people are complaining about how the game is going to be too "easy" now. That everyone going to get godly now and be able to solo all bosses. Yet these were the same exact people who complained about potential in the first place and how it ruined the game. They complained about how it was too hard to get geared because not everyone can partake in the bosses. They complained about the huge gap between unfunded and funded. Nexon finally delivers something so that everyone can partake in all content as it should be played and yet people complain now it's "too easy". They state it will ruin the economy but that's just an excuse to hide their selfish reasons. They think that since they spend 1000s on gears that everyone else now should spend 1000s if they want that type of gear. This will deflate there current godlies so that the less funded will have an easier time to obtain decent gears. The new godlies will now be the perfected equips. Thus helping close the gap a bit more. It's a step in the right direction and this is what cubes should have been when they first came out. Not the gachpon like gamble crap we have now where it takes at least 1000 dollars per gear to get something good.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
Shangz

@wall:

Lol I was being facetious

How do you feel about the Violet cubes?

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
LittleTLK

I need to figure out a way to raise some money now.
Lol.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
ZeroSuited

[quote=photographer]taric[/quote]

It's 2015. Love won.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
duriel123

@wisdomwods, The equation you posted earlier is actually also correct, you simply used my method for the undesirable results as opposed to the desirable ones. If we crunch in the numbers we should end up with the same thing. I just figured the one I used was simpler to solve.
If line 1,2,3,4 are useful, you are treating that as 1 outcome. I would treat 1,2,3,4 as 4 possible outcomes since you can chose 4 different combinations to end up with useful lines.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
duriel123

[quote=wisdomwods]I believe this is inaccurate because you did not consider the situation where you get more than 3 useful lines. Let me know if what I'm suggesting is off because it's been a while since I've done any probability.[/quote]
Whether you get 3 or more lines does not matter, this is because the once you have chosen 3 lines and each line is useful, whether or not the other lines are useful do not matter. For example, if lines 1,3,4,and 6 are useful, there are 4 ways to chose 3 of the 4, which are:

1,3,4
1,4,6
1,3,6
1,3,4

Each of these cases are considered in the combinatoric 6C3.

TO put it another way, we only need to consider all the combinations that 3 useful lines can appear in lines 1-6, and since each of those cases are equally likely and completely symmetric, we can multiply the total number of combinations by the probability of any one of those combinations happening, thus 6C3 * k^3.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
ayeNICK

this is not gonna end well lololol

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
betaboi101

And here Nexin be accusing dupers of breaking the game

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
wisdomwods

I believe this is inaccurate because you did not consider the situation where you get more than 3 useful lines. This is saying you get exactly 3 useful lines, isn't it? So the deviation is even greater. Let me know if what I'm suggesting is off because it's been a while since I've done any probability.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
Shangz

I'm waiting for 90% 15 all stat 15 atk wep/armor scrolls and 100% legendary pot scrolls

I wanna be able to solo every boss on every character within 1-2 days of creation

Hopefully Nexon decides to implement a feature where for 100k mesos you can go straight to Level 250

Forgot to add they should make damage cap 1 bil so that I don't have to fight boss to long...just a few attacks

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
ak44

game changing cubes

How to use: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLxdGEoa4sI

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
Hydroxide

If only they were in the maple rewards shop

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
Bioniclema93

Cmoooon miracle time <3

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
simaini

too much math in the image

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited
ZeroSuited

Then obviously these bloody cubes are worth it.

Reply August 19, 2015 - edited