New Cubes are NOT 25%
After wasting my money on 25k NX for 8 cubes, I couldn't get a single 3 lined item. Statistically if they are 25% as nexon claims, it should only take FOUR cubes to get one. Don't waste your money on their lies.
May 5, 2011
15 Comments • Newest first
I didn't say 1/4 would guarantee a 3 line. I said after 8, odds are at least one would be 3 lined. But I'm done arguing, my point was more to warn people, since nexon could call it whatever % they want. For instance they could call it 25% and make it 5% and nobody would ever know. People would continue buying them. I for one, am not buying any more
Simple Version for you.
1st Cube = 25%
2nd Cube = 25%
3rd Cube = 25%
4th Cube = 25%
Just because you use 4 in a row doesn't mean it will increase it's percent chance of working.
By your logic flipping a coin four times will always result in two heads and two tails. Why don't you go try that a couple of times for us.
I have failed Maple Warrior 30 3 times. Using your "statistics" I would of passed 100% on the 2nd try, but I did not. Each and every Book/Scroll has a % of working the moment you use it, just like the cubes.
The moment I saw the thread about Miracle cubes yesterday, I did not have a doubt someone would make a thread the next day because they believed that 1/4 cubes would guarantee a 3rd line.
[quote=Narwhol]Exactly..1/4 of the time it would be red. And if I did this 8 times in a row, chances are at least one would be red.[/quote]
No it's not. if you did it 8 times in a row, you're still going through 75 non-red marbles.
25% doesn't mean 1/4 cubes will work EVERY time. Sometimes 0/4 will work, sometimes 1/4 will work, sometimes 2/4 will work...and so on.
Btw, your ign reminded me of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykwqXuMPsoc
[quote=Zhizhing]Place like 100 white marble's and 25 red marble's in a sack. Shake the sack and grab with 1 hand few times in the sack [b]without[/b] looking. Well, then say in he following order what color marble you grabbed.[/quote]
Exactly..1/4 of the time it would be red. And if I did this 8 times in a row, chances are at least one would be red.
Even with a set % rate of 25, like the people above me have stated, each cubing is independent of the other. Each time you cube with the premium cubes you have a 25% chance of success and a 75% chance of failing.
Your bad luck doesn't change the fact it's a 1/4th probability game.
We understand your frustration, though. It's okay. We still love you
[quote=Narwhol]Those are the same thing. Just like with scrolls, if you use enough 50%s one is going to work, and odds are it will be the second one. At a 25% chance, odds are after 4, one will work. Except it isn't a 25% chance, they just put that B.S. out there to get people to buy them.[/quote]
You cant put them together all the cubes are independent.25% or working for each cube. If the first one doesn't work it doesn't magically raise the % of increase to 50%for the next one.
Gambler's fallacy.
Cubes do not have a set % rate to work, Premium cubes are supposed to.
[quote=gamezombie44]It's a 25% chance per cube. Not 4 Cubes = 1 Cube working.[/quote]
Those are the same thing. Just like with scrolls, if you use enough 50%s one is going to work, and odds are it will be the second one. At a 25% chance, odds are after 4, one will work. Except it isn't a 25% chance, they just put that B.S. out there to get people to buy them.
Someone does not understand statistics. Events are independent of each other. Think of it as this: every time you use the cube, there is a 25% chance of it working and 75% chance of it not working. The next cube's chances are also the same and do not influence and are not influenced by past or future events. Too bad it didn't work out for you, but it's not nexon's fault.