General

Yesterdays fever, I got 4 15% (25%) success in a row. So I think its just bad luck on your part.

Previous scrolls not affecting the result of next ones used is wrong actually.

Scrolls on this game use PRNG to determine their outcome, so previous scrolls do indeed affect the ones used after. In fact, this was widely abused back then with 10% scrolls, which was mainly noticeable with dex saunas.

Nexon expects you to buy those shield scrolls that prevents the slot count from decreasing from a failed scroll.

Well maybe you took the stats course, but did your perhaps fail it ? Do you know what know what expected value is ? Why do people bother talking with such high confidence if they really do not understand the fundamentals of that specific topic.

If you've taken a stats class before, you'd know that each time you scroll is "independent" of each other...meaning that the previous scrolling attempt has nothing to do with the probability of passing the next scrolling attempt. Each scroll may have a 25% chance to work, so every time you use a scroll there is a 25% chance to successfully pass that scroll. It's not 25% total of 8 attempts.[/quote]

just buy a new weapon and scroll the new one

Just innocence and try it again. I passed a 15% spell trace (not during fever time) with 4% diligence. If you keep on trying, eventually you'll succeed. Wait another 2 weeks for the next spell trace event. Good luck.

[quote=dbenbaruk]Yes OP was unlucky.

But on your point. Why are you multiplying the percentage of the scrolls success rate by the amount of times OP is scrolling? These are two things you can't multiply together in this situation.

you have a 25% success rate per scrolling attempt, not per total of 8 as a whole.

Therefore there is no "expected" amount of successes in this instance, because if you were to take 8 different fafnir staffs and scroll them 8 times each....you could get 8 different results. There is no association in saying that you would get 2/8 on each staff.. 1 staff could pass 7/8, another could pass 2/8, another could pass 4/8 etc...because each scrolling attempt works independent of each other.

Anyways, I suppose it doesn't matter, as what I'm talking about is straying off path from what the OP's intended topic is. So That was my last comment on that, statistics wise.[/quote]

i got nothing to say abt this, the result varies but the expected result should be 2/8. Maybe you should try to understant wuts expected rate.

Expected rate aka human expectation, because its human expectation it can be wrong.

the guy you quoted didnt say "it must be 2/8".

So its totally correct to say this.

and stop keep talking abt independance, it has nothign to do wiht taht crap

[quote=dbenbaruk]Yes OP was unlucky.

But on your point. Why are you multiplying the percentage of the scrolls success rate by the amount of times OP is scrolling? These are two things you can't multiply together in this situation.

you have a 25% success rate per scrolling attempt, not per total of 8 as a whole.

Therefore there is no "expected" amount of successes in this instance, because if you were to take 8 different fafnir staffs and scroll them 8 times each....you could get 8 different results. There is no association in saying that you would get 2/8 on each staff.. 1 staff could pass 7/8, another could pass 2/8, another could pass 4/8 etc...because each scrolling attempt works independent of each other.

Anyways, I suppose it doesn't matter, as what I'm talking about is straying off path from what the OP's intended topic is. So That was my last comment on that, statistics wise.[/quote]
here is the distribution of probabilities: [url=http://imgur.com/qS7keIF][/url] the peak is at two b/c it's the average. If you scrolled several different fafnirs 8 times each the amount of successes:failures would most likely add up to around 25:75

[quote=jaffah]2/8 is average expected amount of passes though, it has nothing to do with dependency
8 attempts, 25% success rate
8*0.25=2 successes [i]regardless of where they are[/i] whether it's the first/second slot or the third/fourth

either way OP was unlucky lol [/quote]

Yes OP was unlucky.

But on your point. Why are you multiplying the percentage of the scrolls success rate by the amount of times OP is scrolling? These are two things you can't multiply together in this situation.

you have a 25% success rate per scrolling attempt, not per total of 8 as a whole.

Therefore there is no "expected" amount of successes in this instance, because if you were to take 8 different fafnir staffs and scroll them 8 times each....you could get 8 different results. There is no association in saying that you would get 2/8 on each staff.. 1 staff could pass 7/8, another could pass 2/8, another could pass 4/8 etc...because each scrolling attempt works independent of each other.

Anyways, I suppose it doesn't matter, as what I'm talking about is straying off path from what the OP's intended topic is. So That was my last comment on that, statistics wise.

[quote=dbenbaruk]Lol no its not.

You cannot view an "expected" passing rate as a whole when each scroll works independently of each other, with each one having no effect on the previous attempt or future attempt.

It's the same marbles in a bag concept... If I have a bag with 10 marbles in it, with 5 being red...What is the probability that I will draw a red marble? it's 5/10, 50%
What about if I decide to draw twice from the bag, but after the first draw I return the marble back to the bag...it would still be 5/10 both times. This is an example of independent

If I had decided to draw twice from the bag of marbles without putting the marble back in from the first draw...then that is dependent because the second attempt's percentage would have changed due to the fact that there is one less marble in the bag...which is what you and him are claiming this situation to be in regards to scrolling, when in fact scrolling is an independent based scenario shown in my above example of independent probability.

Thank you and have a nice day.[/quote]
2/8 is average expected amount of passes though, it has nothing to do with dependency
8 attempts, 25% success rate
8*0.25=2 successes [i]regardless of where they are[/i] whether it's the first/second slot or the third/fourth

either way OP was unlucky lol

[quote=jerry5000]if you were taken stats class b4 u know theres nothing wrong to say this, this guy claims nothing abt each scroll has correlation to other scrolling attemp, what he said can be view as expected passing rate out of 8, which is totally correct.[/quote]

Lol no its not.

You cannot view an "expected" passing rate as a whole when each scroll works independently of each other, with each one having no effect on the previous attempt or future attempt.

It's the same marbles in a bag concept... If I have a bag with 10 marbles in it, with 5 being red...What is the probability that I will draw a red marble? it's 5/10, 50%
What about if I decide to draw twice from the bag, but after the first draw I return the marble back to the bag...it would still be 5/10 both times. This is an example of independent

If I had decided to draw twice from the bag of marbles without putting the marble back in from the first draw...then that is dependent because the second attempt's percentage would have changed due to the fact that there is one less marble in the bag...which is what you and him are claiming this situation to be in regards to scrolling, when in fact scrolling is an independent based scenario shown in my above example of independent probability.

Thank you and have a nice day.

[quote=jerry5000]if you were taken stats class b4 u know theres nothing wrong to say this, this guy claims nothing abt each scroll has correlation to other scrolling attemp, what he said can be view as expected passing rate out of 8, which is totally correct.[/quote]

agreed

[quote=dbenbaruk]Lol what guy?

If you've taken a stats class before, you'd know that each time you scroll is "independent" of each other...meaning that the previous scrolling attempt has nothing to do with the probability of passing the next scrolling attempt. Each scroll may have a 25% chance to work, so every time you use a scroll there is a 25% chance to successfully pass that scroll. It's not 25% total of 8 attempts.[/quote]

if you were taken stats class b4 u know theres nothing wrong to say this, this guy claims nothing abt each scroll has correlation to other scrolling attemp, what he said can be view as expected passing rate out of 8, which is totally correct.

[quote=dbenbaruk]Lol what guy?

If you've taken a stats class before, you'd know that each time you scroll is "independent" of each other...meaning that the previous scrolling attempt has nothing to do with the probability of passing the next scrolling attempt. Each scroll may have a 25% chance to work, so every time you use a scroll there is a 25% chance to successfully pass that scroll. It's not 25% total of 8 attempts.[/quote]

This ^
OP had bad luck.

[quote=pichucrunch]I mean if its a 25% rate to pass and you used it 8 times, 2 should have passed. That means you are just 1 less than average so its not bad[/quote]

Lol what guy?

If you've taken a stats class before, you'd know that each time you scroll is "independent" of each other...meaning that the previous scrolling attempt has nothing to do with the probability of passing the next scrolling attempt. Each scroll may have a 25% chance to work, so every time you use a scroll there is a 25% chance to successfully pass that scroll. It's not 25% total of 8 attempts.

Try spend bils making 15% 10scrolls pass lol than u can speak !

try 15 60% straight failed attempts then question your "bad luck" again

I failed 8 30%s and passed 6 15% o-o

RNG. besides, even with fever. 15%->25%

I got 3/3 15%s to work

I mean if its a 25% rate to pass and you used it 8 times, 2 should have passed. That means you are just 1 less than average so its not bad

25% success rate isn't the best odds. Kinda foolish to expect a ton of them to pass

relog to reset the rng

is that why my 70%s are always working in fever time

Nexon'd