scrolling success rate guide
So I got bored in stat class and I'm sure none of you would know anything about this, but I slacked off and started doing something else
Hopefully my conclusion can make up for such apathetic behavior
BEFORE YOU READ, FOR ALL OF YOU THAT SAY THAT YOU DON'T JUST MULTIPLY FOR THE TOTAL YOU ARE WRONG: IT IS A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY, THE 7 SCROLLINGS ARE RELATED, AND IF YOU BELIEVE DIFFERANTLY THEN STOP SPREADING INCORRECT RUMORS AND GO TAKE PROBABILITY /STATISTICS
Now that that's out of the way
So most people know the probability of having 7/7 scrolls land is scroll success rate (in decimal) to the seventh so 7 60s is .6^7 or .0279936 = 2.8% roughly. But I figured out the success rate for all possible outcomes.
So basically. To get the probability of an outcome you must multiply the scroll success rate or the fail rate as it applies, so 4/7 on a 60 would be .6^4*.4^3 (.6*.6*.6*.6*.4*.4*.4), but that's only for that specific outcome, so you need to multiply it by the number of outcomes for a 4/7.
So basically, you need 3 things to determine probability of any set amount of successes while scrolling
1: scroll success rate
2:number of successes out of total
3: # of occurrences possible
For those who don't know what I mean by number off occurrences. You can get the same number of successes in a different order, like you can get 5/7 by having P P P F P F P, or P P F F P P P. Both have the same number off successes but are in a different order, and thus account for the same overall probability (.6^5*.4^2), but are separate occurrences, so they must be accounted for separately.
When looking for pass/fail seven times here's the number of occurrences:
7/7: 1
6/7:5
5/7:21
4/7:34
3/7:34
2/7:21
1/7:5
0/7:1
So as an example: getting 4/7 60%s
So 4/7 at a 60% pass rate would be .6^4*.4^3 =.0082944
Now multiply that by number of occurrences so .0082944*34 occurrences = .2820096 or about 28.2%
So there is a 28.2% chance of getting 4/7 60s
So that's basically the math behind all this...
LAZY VERSION (wouldn't let me put too lazy; didn't read)
Free chart with percents on 10s, 50s, 60s, and 70s with and without hammers...
[IMG]http://i41.tinypic.com/2mhcvuo.jpg[/IMG]
Sorry that it's just a picture, I'm dumb and have no idea how to put a spreadsheet on the interwebz
*sorry if the explaination is unclear... theres a reason im failing english... just read the chart i checked over it and had my teacher check my math, so i know thats right
*EDIT, remember people THIS IS THEORETICAL PROBABILITY, your experiences can and will differ, but in the long run, these are the overall porbabilities
8 Comments • Newest first
@ DrHye it is true, that most people go by luck, but its nice to have resources out there for those people that do care, even if it is a small group of people, and we have no way of saying how big that group is, seeing as we cant organize a census anyways
[quote=dragoncore74]true, this is just prob/stat which (for my school at least) is 11th grade, but remember that many of the people on here arent in high school yet, so this will help.[/quote]
But when it comes down to it, just about no one cares about probability when it comes to scrolling in MS. People just wanna push their luck and enjoy that. I never heard of someone actually calculating the probabilities of scrolling, comparing two sets of scrolls to possibly be used on an item. (I took AP Statistics, probability was among the easiest work so I knew it inside and out, but I didn't bother referring to it once for MS ).
@DrHye
true, this is just prob/stat which (for my school at least) is 11th grade, but remember that many of the people on here arent in high school yet, so this will help.
[quote=aidmur]so explain scrolling the silent crusade pads to me cause my friend claims its a 12.5% chance to get 3 50%'s to land on it. On 4 different characters ive landed 3 in a row in less than 5 tries.[/quote]
I believe the math behind the 12.5% is that there are 8 final out comes, land all 3, land first fail the rest, land second fail the rest etc....
This reminds me of how easily some people can be impressed by a basiler's average writing. "Quit maple, become a writer!" "That was beautiful, I sobbed." etc... Although that's irrelevant here, sorta...
And you realize this level of statistics is usually taught in high school level classes, so it's really not a big deal. The fact that some basilers neglected their homework doesn't make it worth explaining this to them. o_o
3 50's all correct is 50%^3 or 1/8 which is 12.5 correct, just keep in mind that this is theoretical probability and this isnt exactly what will happen
math =/= luck
[quote=dabidazero]no...... all you need is a little bit of luck [/quote]
yea i know right?