General

How is this even possible?

13 advanced gollux scrolls. 0 successes. 13 failures. In a row. 6 lucky days used, still no successes.

60% success rate? 70% with lucky day? (or 66 if you believe it's multiplicative). How is this even possible? Yet with noob gollux scrolls I've gone 6/6 on a pendant, 3/3 on a belt, and 2/2 on a ring? Am I just cursed?

March 24, 2014

15 Comments • Newest first

OoYuukioO

@headphones: They want you to hold onto those scrolls and wait till the cs scrolls come back. By then you would have so much scrolls to use that you are going to charge a lot of nx =3

Reply March 24, 2014
headphones

[quote=OoYuukioO]Nexons way of wanting you to buy their nx scrolls.[/quote]

Those nx scrolls are not even available in cs. I would know, I need some x_X

Reply March 24, 2014
Legendaire

Does Diligence affect gollux scrolls? I have been hearing people claim that it does

Reply March 24, 2014
Jaacckk

Did I once say I blamed nexon? Please continue to offer up such great evidence for your randumb theory, I'm really convinced. Really. Because the actual extractions support you, right? Clearly. In this, you are both wrong, and making yourself look even worse than usual. But that is your image, after all.

I'm not mad, nor am I whining I'm cursed, failing advanced gollux scrolls, and enjoying your unsubstantiated and irrelevant postings. But please, feel free to continue your tirade. I'm sure you'll convince the MS coding that somehow it's wrong and you're right.

Reply March 24, 2014
Jaacckk

@KrystiCakes
In a row refers to an event over any given period, assuming it is continuous without an obstruction throughout. Failing 13 over a three week period is both continuous, and uninterrupted. Try again.

Also, if my attitude is overly indignant, please consult back to this simple fact. Scroll success rate is coded as [i]simple probability[/i]. Each outcome is independent of another, something you would probably understand if you took a statistics class. Any evidence you present for your randumb theory is superficial and disposable.

Also, if I were thick-headed and unyielding as you presuppose, I wouldn't know what simple probability is, and I would disregard the loads of evidence (plus the actual extractions) that support said system. But again, I'm not KrystiCakes, am I?

Reply March 24, 2014 - edited
Jaacckk

[quote=KrystiCakes]I love these threads!

It's hilarious because... I mean, I think I've posted on the subject ~at least~ two or three dozen times point blank explaining about how the game is "randumb" not "random"... and yet... I dunno... it's like for some reason it just doesn't seem to penetrate your average Basil user's incredibly thick skull. o_O

Oh well, I've pretty much stopped counting how many times I've gone over this, but here it is again...

The game is "randumb" not "random". It has flaws with the type of algorithms it uses in that it produces "trending results". So basically if you FAIL a scroll, there is an exponentially increasing chance that you will CONTINUE to fail the same type of scroll again and again and again within a given time frame.

That's why, if you FAIL a scroll or two you need to STOP and then WAIT a day or two and THEN try again.

And, contrariwise, if you get a scroll or two to work then you should KEEP GOING and try and scroll as much as possible.[/quote]

No, it's pretty much been proven that everything you have said is a load of junk. Scrolling is simple probability.

Plus these scrolls were failed over a two week period so once again, refer to the above.

Reply March 24, 2014 - edited
Jaacckk

[quote=roseng]There's a 0.000194% chance of it happening (0.3^6*0.4^7). Which means it should occur once every ~840000 times, or ~10920000 scrolling attempts. So it actually is completely possible, and it does not prove miracle time is a sham, because there's way more than the aforementioned number of scrolling attempts.[/quote]

Oh no, I realize it's possible I'm just lamenting my seriously terrible luck.

Reply March 24, 2014 - edited
OoYuukioO

Nexons way of wanting you to buy their nx scrolls.

Reply March 24, 2014 - edited
ClericBoi81

@Jaacckk I suck at scrolling myself. I attempted to perfect my rod with red shop scrolls and wasted $100 on nx and failed everyone of them. I thought I would give it a second try before the event ended and failed another 6 shields and guards. Passed the 7th set and [url=http://tinypic.com/r/symu7d/8]this[/url] is what happened. Ironically, looking at my potential on the rod, you can see that I have very good luck at cubing. Only took me 6 enlightened cubes on miracle time to get to legendary, and another 5 red cubes to get that pot.

Reply March 24, 2014 - edited
Scomomage

Are you even sure diligence works with gollux scrolls?

Reply March 24, 2014 - edited
nc4228

If people can perfect scroll a weapon by passing 10 10%'s, why can't u fail 13 70%'s?

Reply March 24, 2014 - edited
Jaacckk

[quote=Kiryuin]it's nexon's way of saying you need to hop off your high horse[/quote]

No, nexon's way of saying that is miracle time. Which by the way I didn't participate in because I figured it'd be a sham.

Reply March 24, 2014 - edited
HitThings

RNG's.

I tend to fail about 40% of the Gollux Scrolls (Basic and Adv) I use even with 100 Diligence.
I've never failed one with a Lucky Day however

Reply March 24, 2014 - edited
vincevo

It's okay. I have the worst luck a scrolling even if it was a 99% or 100% scroll </3. But for some reason when I use a 1% clean slate, it works. >.<

Reply March 24, 2014 - edited
Kiryuin

it's nexon's way of saying you need to hop off your high horse

Reply March 24, 2014 - edited