Chaos Scrolling %'s
Me and my friend are arguing about the statistical information about a chaos scroll. I don't fully understand his argument, but this is mine.
A chaos scroll has 60% of working. That means it has 60% chance of increasing/decreasing, and a 40% chance of doing nothing.
Out of this 60% success, you have a 50% chance of increasing your item's stats and 50% chance of decreasing.
Which means that out of every scroll you use, you have a 40% chance of neutrality, 30% chance of decreasing stats, and 30% chance of increasing.
To put it in mathematical terms, 0.5*0.6 = 0.3, or 30%.
His argument is that it's not 50% out of 60%, which I think it clearly is, but I could be wrong.
HELP.
November 14, 2010
15 Comments • Newest first
[quote=edmundrocks]im azn so ok.
heres the thing
60% of working
40% of failing
if it works theres 50% of increasing 50% of decreasing stats
if fails nothing happens
get it when it works theres 100% total
then u split it by 2 and get 50/50 chance for each[/quote]
The guy I'm arguing with and I are both Asian, we both took college-leveled math courses, etc etc.
And being asian doesn't have anything to do with it.
[quote=teddy8221]does chaos scroll ever break an item?[/quote]
i think they do in KMS
[quote=leannesama]no it's actually 27% of increase, with a chaos scroll there is the chance of increase/decrease/nothing happening even if it works, this would mean the chance of increasing is 5/11 which is rounded 45%, 45% then multiplied to 60% is rounded 27% chance of increase stats. This of course also means the chance of the item being neutral isn't 40%, it would be 40%+[0.6*(1/11)] = 40%+5%(rounded) which would equal to 45% neutral chance.[/quote]
nuff said
[quote=teddy8221]does chaos scroll ever break an item?[/quote]
Not to my knowledge, no.
@leannesama: Wow what a rip off
[quote=ChildCrusade]Wait, a Chaos scroll can succeed but not raise or decrease any stat?
I thought it had to increase
60% to do something, 40% not to do anything
within that 60%- 50% increasing, 50% decreasing
It can really succeed but not raise stats?[/quote]
Yes it can
Wait, a Chaos scroll can succeed but not raise or decrease any stat?
I thought it had to increase
60% to do something, 40% not to do anything
within that 60%- 50% increasing, 50% decreasing
It can really succeed but not raise stats?
[quote=S1lv3rw1nd]I guess, if you wanted to state it in simple terms, that explanation is fine. However, note that every stat is independently affected. One stat can go up 3, one stat can go down 2, and another can go up 5.[/quote]
put all stat together, and the chances of increasing/decreasing/neutral and you get the same % regardless of multiple stats. The chance of raising/decrease/neutral to str is the same to dex. The chances would stay the same regardless. Now if you are saying the chances of 2 stats going up it's different. On avg the chances of the stats increase/decrease/nothing happens is however the same.
you're right. 30% chance of increase, 30% chance of decrease, and 40% chance of a wasted slot, or "neutrality"
This thread really grinds my gears.
It's not 40% chance of neutrality.
There's a 40% chance of it just not working, and a chance [i]within the 60%[/i] of success that it will neither increase nor decrease.
no it's actually 27% of increase, with a chaos scroll there is the chance of increase/decrease/nothing happening even if it works, this would mean the chance of increasing is 5/11 which is rounded 45%, 45% then multiplied to 60% is rounded 27% chance of increase stats. This of course also means the chance of the item being neutral isn't 40%, it would be 40%+[0.6*(1/11)] = 40%+5%(rounded) which would equal to 45% neutral chance.
I think you're right
@sl3athOwl Yeah, that's the 40% chance of neutrality.
@youngryder YOU'RE WRONG. @___@
given that the odds of it going up are the same as it going down, what you say is true. Unless someone actually has proof of 1/3 (example) going up, then what you say remains true.
Theres also the chance of it not affecting the stat you want it to affect