General

[quote=NamesBoreMe]If I'm not wrong, then using a 15% scroll will cost approximately 55 CSS on average per slot, whilst using a 30% scroll will cost 33 CSS per slot. It looks weird, but from a statistical standpoint, 30% is not actually twice as cost effective. Again, this is using the base probabilities only; if you have any modifiers to add to the success rate, then you'll have to calculate the costs yourselves.

Working out the sum of a geometric progression:
If you let the first term = 1
S = 1 + 1r + 1r^2 + 1r^3 ...
rS = 1r + 1r^2 + 1r^3 ...
Therefore, S - rS = 1
S = 1/(1-r)

Where S is the number of sum of the progression and r is the ratio (where 0 < r < 1). How this is applied to finding out the average cost can be referred to in my earlier post.[/quote]

You're forgetting a few important factors.

1. Diligence adds 10% success rate
2. Guild skill adds 4% success rate so it's 15->29%
3. Guild skill gives 4% chance of "clean failure" which saves your slot
4. You have inno control at the cost of roughly 100 M per 50% innocence, or can just flat out buy a new Fafnir if it's cheap enough.

Depending on the cost of your weapon/innocence scrolls, you probably don't want to start hammering/slating until you have at least 5-6 slots passed on your yolo attempts.

If your weapon is cheap enough, buy one at a time and Go HAM with 15% Spell Trace on all of them. If you hit 3-4 on one weapon, begin CSSing on that one. It took me about 10B total doing it that way.

[quote=NamesBoreMe][b] OT: 567 Clean slates + thousands of spell traces (spell trace costs negligible). Give or take a few hundred. See below for details; I made a mistake somewhere probably. [/b]

Only now do I realise how lucky I am to finish my staff (from +7 to +10) with only 2 50% hammers, 2 CSS and spell traces... Pretty sure you could draw up an excel spreadsheet which will help you estimate costs; I'd make one myself, but my math is bad and my probability moreso, though I guess there's always the chance that you indefinitely fail your CSS and spell traces (no matter how unlikely).

EDIT: Ok, if my math is right, which it probably isn't, the average cost of CSSing each slot is approximately 10 CSS + traces. This is assuming that you have no success rate increases and are using the raw 15% and 10% CSS.

EDIT 2: My math was wrong. I forgot a step. The cost of passing each slot is approximately 55 CSS give or take slightly. The weighted average cost of passing all 10 slots with no modifiers to your success rate whatsoever is 550 CSS.

What I did was...

Series 1 is A = r^n1 + r^n2 + r^n3 ... r^n(infinity)
A = Number of CSS to slate one slot
r = 0.9 (rate of CSS failure, which you can change)
n = nth term in the series
Which is sorta similar to a geometric sequence... in fact, it's exactly similar. In the case that r = 0.9, the sum of the sequence converges at 10... which (and this is important) is an indication of the average, based on the probability of every single result from passing the CSS first try to taking a billion tries and still not passing it.

Series 2 is A = B[r^n1 + r^n2 + r^n3 ... r^n(infinity)]
A = Number of CSS to pass a slot
B = A from series 1
r = 0.85 (rate of scroll trace failure, which you can change)
n = nth term in the series
Same as above, except with a different rate of success and accounting for slating every failed scroll. Assuming 15% traces, this works out to be approximately 20/3. Using this, the total cost (in terms of CSS) is roughly equal to 10 * 0.85 * series 2, but I'm probably wrong with this since I'm extremely tired right now and didn't have any paper or a calculator to work with and I hate probability. Turns out that this is about 1700/3 CSS.[/quote]

so like um, 570 css's, which in windia prices should be around 22.6b, (not keeping in mind that some may work without the need of a CSS, but we can save that for later)
and let's not forget about spell traces, so that'll be around 25b total

Thank you for you time aswell! very helpful

I was planning to do the same thing. I failed so many 15% traces with Lv.80 diligence and the guild skill so many times I gave up. Ended up doing six 30% and four 15% traces (was supposed to do five each but I accidentally kept tracing and passed the sixth 30% trace right after passing the fifth 30% trace..)

I passed the last clean slate and 15% trace just about an hour ago. Spent a total of 5B excluding the claw itself (slates 50m each, spell traces 10k-15k each)

[quote=NamesBoreMe]Series 1 is A = r^n1 + r^n2 + r^n3 ... r^n(infinity)
A = Number of CSS to slate one slot
r = 0.9 (rate of CSS failure, which you can change)
n = nth term in the series
Which is sorta similar to a geometric sequence... in fact, it's exactly similar. In the case that r = 0.9, the sum of the sequence converges at 10... which (and this is important) is an indication of the average, based on the probability of every single result from passing the CSS first try to taking a billion tries and still not passing it.

Series 2 is A = B[r^n1 + r^n2 + r^n3 ... r^n(infinity)]
A = Number of CSS to pass a slot
B = A from series 1
r = 0.85 (rate of scroll trace failure, which you can change)
n = nth term in the series
Same as above, except with a different rate of success and accounting for slating every failed scroll. Assuming 15% traces, this works out to be approximately 20/3. Using this, the total cost (in terms of CSS) is roughly equal to 10 * 0.85 * series 2, but I'm probably wrong with this since I'm extremely tired right now and didn't have any paper or a calculator to work with and I hate probability. Turns out that this is about 1700/3 CSS.[/quote]

[quote=NamesBoreMe]Working out the sum of a geometric progression:
If you let the first term = 1
S = 1 + 1r + 1r^2 + 1r^3 ...
rS = 1r + 1r^2 + 1r^3 ...
Therefore, S - rS = 1
S = 1/(1-r)

Where S is the number of sum of the progression and r is the ratio (where 0 < r < 1). How this is applied to finding out the average cost can be referred to in my earlier post.[/quote]

You remind me of the HSC, go away

Well, with the new Rewards Shop having those scrolls that protect your item from losing 1 upgrade slot from a failed scroll (also disappears from a success), I'm doing Star Planet on multiple accounts in order to get them and then use a 15%. It'll take a long time but it'll save you money.

[quote=TricksterHoe]that is immense! good luck!

do you guys advise me to do part 30%'s and 15%'s? mix it up?[/quote]

If I'm not wrong, then using a 15% scroll will cost approximately 55 CSS on average per slot, whilst using a 30% scroll will cost 33 CSS per slot. It looks weird, but from a statistical standpoint, 30% is not actually twice as cost effective. Again, this is using the base probabilities only; if you have any modifiers to add to the success rate, then you'll have to calculate the costs yourselves.

Working out the sum of a geometric progression:
If you let the first term = 1
S = 1 + 1r + 1r^2 + 1r^3 ...
rS = 1r + 1r^2 + 1r^3 ...
Therefore, S - rS = 1
S = 1/(1-r)

Where S is the number of sum of the progression and r is the ratio (where 0 < r < 1). How this is applied to finding out the average cost can be referred to in my earlier post.

[quote=TricksterHoe]that is immense! good luck!

do you guys advise me to do part 30%'s and 15%'s? mix it up?[/quote]

If you don't want to spend a whole heap of money on more css and spell traces, then you could mix it up like 5 30%s and 5 15%s (2 hammer success slots ofc). How many 30% and 15% you want to mix up is your choice but people I know has saved quite a bit of mesos doing the combination above.

i just went with 30%'s. i know it's not oh so godly end game like everyone wants, but i only had to spend 6b to get it fully scrolled. got very luck and passed 4 in a row. add 12 stars to that and it's 312 attack which is good enough for me ^-^

[b] OT: 567 Clean slates + thousands of spell traces (spell trace costs negligible). Give or take a few hundred. See below for details; I made a mistake somewhere probably. [/b]

Only now do I realise how lucky I am to finish my staff (from +7 to +10) with only 2 50% hammers, 2 CSS and spell traces... Pretty sure you could draw up an excel spreadsheet which will help you estimate costs; I'd make one myself, but my math is bad and my probability moreso, though I guess there's always the chance that you indefinitely fail your CSS and spell traces (no matter how unlikely).

EDIT: Ok, if my math is right, which it probably isn't, the average cost of CSSing each slot is approximately 10 CSS + traces. This is assuming that you have no success rate increases and are using the raw 15% and 10% CSS.

EDIT 2: My math was wrong. I forgot a step. The cost of passing each slot is approximately 55 CSS give or take slightly. The weighted average cost of passing all 10 slots with no modifiers to your success rate whatsoever is 550 CSS.

What I did was...

Series 1 is A = r^n1 + r^n2 + r^n3 ... r^n(infinity)
A = Number of CSS to slate one slot
r = 0.9 (rate of CSS failure, which you can change)
n = nth term in the series
Which is sorta similar to a geometric sequence... in fact, it's exactly similar. In the case that r = 0.9, the sum of the sequence converges at 10... which (and this is important) is an indication of the average, based on the probability of every single result from passing the CSS first try to taking a billion tries and still not passing it.

Series 2 is A = B[r^n1 + r^n2 + r^n3 ... r^n(infinity)]
A = Number of CSS to pass a slot
B = A from series 1
r = 0.85 (rate of scroll trace failure, which you can change)
n = nth term in the series
Same as above, except with a different rate of success and accounting for slating every failed scroll. Assuming 15% traces, this works out to be approximately 20/3. Using this, the total cost (in terms of CSS) is roughly equal to 10 * 0.85 * series 2, but I'm probably wrong with this since I'm extremely tired right now and didn't have any paper or a calculator to work with and I hate probability. Turns out that this is about 1700/3 CSS.

It's only now I realize how lucky I was to have perfected my bow for 6b during the mapleversary

[quote=iambackfool]I spent 7b so far and only got my xbow to +4 if this helps in anyway.[/quote]

that is immense! good luck!

do you guys advise me to do part 30%'s and 15%'s? mix it up?

it's best if you max diligence first and join a high ranking guild that has maxed the skill that helps with the scrolling success rate. It might save you a couple of bill when perfecting your item.

30bil here to perfect my claw

I spent 7b so far and only got my xbow to +4 if this helps in anyway.