General

I failed all the 70% renegades scrolls I've ever gotten, on my gun, on my claw, everything has failed.
Then my friend got 10 and they all failed too.
Nexon gotta be trolling >:T

I don't think Nexon would risk their "reputation" for a mix-up like that.
Computerized/generated probability is pretty different than real-life probability.

Why wouldn't Nexon lie to us?

Me: Nexon, I got hacked.
Nexon: We are sorry for your loss, we'll have a solution for you by early 2012.

August of 2012...Still waiting for a solution...

Every scroll is 50%. It either works, or it doesn't.

But seriously, Nexon wouldn't lie to us. (or would they....?)

well.. when new crusader quest came out again, i scrolled a shoulder pad and all 3 20%s went in. I was happy until the 80% 2 star ee boomed it... >.<

I'd say the scrolls are true to their success rate.
Scrolling a 10 slot weapon with 20% Renegades scrolls (effectively 30% with max diligence) and 10% clean slates should take approximately 33 20%s and 233 slates.
I took 32 20%s and 253 slates, many other people who did the same took around the same number too.
The number of scrolls used is likely large enough to say that it's reasonably accurate.
Someone can collect some data and work it out with statistical methods if they want, I'm too lazy for that

lol how do u expect us to answer an unanswerable question

@Komuzaki: Theoretical probability is basically the likelihood of an event happening without testing (the likelihood is found by comparing the outcome to the number of possible outcomes) while experimental probability is the number of times something occurs compared to the number of trials.

Theoretical Probability- The theoretical probability of a coin landing on heads is 1/2.
Experimental Probability- A coin lands on heads 3 times after 8 flips. The experimental probability of landing on heads is 3/8.

Satisfied?

[quote=Management]Not 100% sure, but I would think that using a Vega Spell would change the original scroll making it a "Special Scroll" to where diligence would have no effect. I know Nexon is stupid, but I would assume they'd catch something minimal like that so they can avoid catching the major and more bothersome issues in game. =P[/quote]

That's a possibility, too. However, the Vega scroll actually opens a UI to drop a 60% scroll and the equipment to scroll. In a way, nothing actually gets created. But like you said, this could open up for a lot of exploits.

@Aaaayee: *Epic Facepalm*

@themags:

Then what's the point?

[quote=Aaaayee]@themags:

Okay? And if Nexon is lying? Then what?
You can't really do anything about it.[/quote]

Not my problem. That's a different argument.

@themags:

Okay? And if Nexon is lying? Then what?
You can't really do anything about it.

i have 6 60% scrolls succeed in a row
the 7th one failed
and i scrolled it on my mule with low lv diligence

@Aaaayee: *double facepalm*

I wouldn't even mention this because it's stupid, but you asked for it.

The only true way to actually test this without doing anything illegal is to buy lots of Vega scrolls for 60% (Which turn 60% scrolls into 90%). Use these scrolls on any of your 60% scrolls. If you have Diligence at level 100, you should have +10% on all scrolls (excluding special scrolls).

With those 60% and Vega scrolls for 60%, you should get 100% every time. If not, Nexon is lying.

i had 3 of the pink tube scrolls work on a 1 handed sword pink tube. too bad the same luck doesn't apply when trying to scroll a pole arm or spear that i can actually use.

actually... scrolls and mastery books are pre-determined to pass or fail. i say this because it's theoretically next to impossible for people to fail at the rate that they do. for example... people that fail the 70% mastery books 8 times. i forget how to convert this into a % "odds of this happening".

Look at it this way.

Do you find 60%s accurate? I mean, it's more than 50% so 3/5 should work fine right?

Hypnosis is a 60% accuracy move and that's way too unreliable. Never hits. Barely even trust Focus Blast's 70% accuracy, but yet Maple's 70% scrolls seem like they'll work.

[quote=lilseventeen]Just yesterday, I had 5 60%'s work in a row. (That was rather off topic)
But no, I don't feel as though they lie to us. Personally, anyway. I'm one of the few people that have never had an advanced potential scroll fail on me.[/quote]

I've had 4 70% scrolls failed in a row.

@themags:

*facepalm*

[quote=skim061495]It either works or it doesn't is how i think about it.[/quote]

so do we just say every scroll in the game is 50%?

Nexon is like the US Government, you believe what they want, you spend money on things you dont need, with money you dont have, impressing people you dont like. also the scorll chance is like a masterball.

@Aaaayee: We're not talking about me. You said there's no actual way to prove it, which was wrong.

i failed 7 60% in a row idk ...

depends on your luck i think. once i landed 2/7 70% scrolls and once i landed 5 70% scrolls in a row

@themags:

Obviously, but do you have the Maple source code anywhere handy?

It either works or it doesn't is how i think about it.

@Aaaayee: Looking into code will.

[quote=themags]There is. the rampant pizza slices were pretty were testing grounds.[/quote]

there is no actual way to prove it.

[quote=lilseventeen]Just yesterday, I had 5 60%'s work in a row. (That was rather off topic)
But no, I don't feel as though they lie to us. Personally, anyway. I'm one of the few people that have never had an advanced potential scroll fail on me.[/quote]
I never had one fail on me either.. that is intill my 1st empress knuckle came along from now on.. 90%= MYTH >.<

[quote=iiHasNoLife]There is no real way to prove it.[/quote]

There is. the rampant pizza slices were testing grounds.

I've gotten really lucky with scrolling and really unlucky recently. Like I 20%'ed my 10 slots of my baselard and only one worked (those slots are going to take forever to get back >.< ) I was hoping to have at least 2 work though. I also used 1 20% scroll on my crusader pendant, and used 3 more 60% scrolls on it and they all worked, so I got a 6att 11 all stats pendant with hidden pot for free, so I guess it all evens out eventually.

I boomed my hat from a 80% Silent Crusade 2-star enhancement scroll....... so yeah, I think the % are like opposite... "80% chance to fail and EXPLODE!"

I passed 8/9 50% scrolls and 2/3 20% Pink scrolls...
My secret scrolling place is Ch3 Sleepywood Sauna

EDIT: I've failed a 90% pot scroll in the same place though...my poor 10 att overall

There's a difference between theoretical probability and experimental probability

I don't think so. But... you really never know because you could like use 7 scrolls on an item and have all of them fail. Then the next day, you use 7 scrolls on another item, and all of them work. But nexon could be pulling on our strings. We don't really know.

Just yesterday, I had 5 60%'s work in a row. (That was rather off topic)
But no, I don't feel as though they lie to us. Personally, anyway. I'm one of the few people that have never had an advanced potential scroll fail on me.