General

I've never ever gotten Legendary tier off red cubes. They are the worst cubes ever, unless you're already at legendary and then they're the best things ever.

I find it easy for me to tier up to unique from epic, I bought a pack of red cubes and tiered up to unique like 3 items

[quote=nhan1st]@Axnslicer: I don't need you to admit I'm right. As long as basil's population understands why what I said is mathematically valid, it's fine with me. You can go use 100 1% clean slate at 1m ea, while I'll use 1 100% clean slate at 100m, enjoy your scrolling since we have the same probability of "failing". I guess you failed to learn in your probability course that probability is multiplicative and not additive.[/quote]

Ten no boom 10% clean slates have the exact same expectation of success as a 100% no boom clean slate. Stop wasting the time of people who actually know how probability works. Basil's population understands you never learned exactly "how" probability is multiplicative, and that you should probably stop digging a deeper hole for yourself by pretending you did.

@Axnslicer: I don't need you to admit I'm right. As long as basil's population understands why what I said is mathematically valid, it's fine with me. You can go use 100 1% clean slate at 1m ea, while I'll use 1 100% clean slate at 100m, enjoy your scrolling since we have the same probability of "failing". I guess you failed to learn in your probability course that probability is multiplicative and not additive.

[quote=nhan1st]I added the math behind my reasoning in my post edit. I you refuse to listen to logic, it's up to you.[/quote]

Lol, we're talking math, anyone with a basic course in probability can see I'm right.

[quote=nhan1st]@Axnslicer: But if I were to measure expected failure rate, then it would be

.36 x 2
.16 x 0
.48 x 1

Thus wouldn't make sense, and while it's an inversion of the success rate it should be valid. You can't just ignore rate of failure in expected success because you're reducing the rate of failure to 0. You don't count 0.16 twice because it doesn't matter what order they're in the result is still the same. 0.16 should only be weighted once. Let me draw a chart, if the postulates of the chart is correct, then the answer should be correct as long as the calculation along the way doesn't have any error and we only needed to succeed in one cube to be called success.

0 Cube~~~~~~~~~~~ 1 Cube ~~~~~~~~2 Cubes~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Probability
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 40% success~~~~~~~~~0.4 x 0.4 = .16 -> success
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~40% success

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~60% fail~~~~~~~~~~~~~0.4 x 0.6 = 0.24 -> success

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~40% success~~~~~~~~~~0.6 x 0.4 = 0.24 -> success
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~60% fail
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~60% fail ~~~~~~~~~~~~~0.6 x 0.6 = 0.36 -> not success

What what you're weighting twice is not the consecutive probably of both cube succeeding, but rather the probability of at least one cube succeeding where
0.36 x 0
0.24 x 2
0.16 x 1

I think you're the one who doesn't want to argue about math with me @Elufu please check this over my love.[/quote]

Good work, you just spent 10 lines replicating the same result I got 3 posts ago.

[quote=Axnslicer]You probably don't want to argue math with me.

We're talking about epic->unique, and we're discussing probability, so you operate in possibilities. We're not discussing unique->leg, that's a separate issue.

2 trials with 40% chance of success.

.6*.6 = 0.36 chance of both failing
.4*.4 = 0.16 chance of both working
.6*.4*2 = 0.48 chance of 1 working and 1 failing

.36+.16+.48 = 1

Now this is the part you don't get. Weight the probabilities.

0.36*0 = 0
0.16*2 = 0.32
0.48*1 = 0.48

0.32+0.48 = 0.80

You count the 0.16 twice because it provides twice the result.

Notice how using 2 cubes with 40% chance and using 1 cube with 80% chance ultimately gives you the same expected result. It doesn't matter how you split your probability of success, it's the same in the end. All you do by changing the number of trials is altering your variance.[/quote]

Now I suggest you go read the rest of that post where I explain weighting and expected value. I know exactly what I'm weighting twice, check your own math. You multiply the 0.24 by 2 to get 0.48 since 2C1 = 2. You then multiply the 0.16 by 2 since it represents double the result (two uniques) that 0.48 represents (one unique).

[quote=Axnslicer]It makes perfect sense. Stop responding in a knee jerk fashion and actually think about what you're saying.[/quote]

I added the math behind my reasoning in my post edit. I you refuse to listen to logic, it's up to you.

[quote=nhan1st]@Axnslicer: But if I were to measure expected failure rate, then it would be

.36 x 2
.16 x 0
.48 x 1

Thus wouldn't make sense, and while it's an inversion of the success rate it should be valid. You can't just ignore rate of failure in expected success because you're reducing the rate of failure to 0. You don't count 0.16 twice because it doesn't matter what order they're in the result is still the same. 0.16 should only be weighted once.[/quote]

It makes perfect sense. Stop responding in a knee jerk fashion and actually think about what you're saying.

@Axnslicer: But if I were to measure expected failure rate, then it would be

.36 x 2
.16 x 0
.48 x 1

Thus wouldn't make sense, and while it's an inversion of the success rate it should be valid. You can't just ignore rate of failure in expected success because you're reducing the rate of failure to 0. You don't count 0.16 twice because it doesn't matter what order they're in the result is still the same. 0.16 should only be weighted once. Let me draw a chart, if the postulates of the chart is correct, then the answer should be correct as long as the calculation along the way doesn't have any error and we only needed to succeed in one cube to be called success.

0 Cube~~~~~~~~~~~ 1 Cube ~~~~~~~~2 Cubes~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Probability
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 40% success~~~~~~~~~0.4 x 0.4 = .16 -> success
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~40% success

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~60% fail~~~~~~~~~~~~~0.4 x 0.6 = 0.24 -> success

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~40% success~~~~~~~~~~0.6 x 0.4 = 0.24 -> success
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~60% fail
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~60% fail ~~~~~~~~~~~~~0.6 x 0.6 = 0.36 -> not success

What what you're weighting twice is not the consecutive probably of both cube succeeding, but rather the probability of at least one cube succeeding where
0.36 x 0
0.24 x 2
0.16 x 1

I think you're the one who doesn't want to argue about math with me @Elufu please check this over my love.

[quote=nhan1st]@Axnslicer: I won't go into permutation and combination if you can convince me why am I weighting the 0.36 at 0 weight, while a 0.48 at 1[/quote]

Because you're measuring your expected success rate. You multiply your chance of succeeding 0 times (failure) by 0, and your chance of succeeding once by 1.

@Axnslicer: I won't go into permutation and combination if you can convince me why am I weighting the 0.36 at 0 weight, while a 0.48 at 1

[quote=nhan1st]You did your math wrong. There's a .36 chance of failing, 0.16 chance of both working assuming if it tiers from epic to unqiue and unique to legendary with keeping the same success rate and a 1 - .36 -.16 = .48 chance of either one working. This does not change the fact that the absolute chance of both cube failing is .36 and that means .36 > .2. I don't know why you take the .36 - .16 from as it has no logic whatsoever.[/quote]

You probably don't want to argue math with me.

We're talking about epic->unique, and we're discussing probability, so you operate in possibilities. We're not discussing unique->leg, that's a separate issue.

2 trials with 40% chance of success.

.6*.6 = 0.36 chance of both failing
.4*.4 = 0.16 chance of both working
.6*.4*2 = 0.48 chance of 1 working and 1 failing

.36+.16+.48 = 1

Now this is the part you don't get. Weight the probabilities.

0.36*0 = 0
0.16*2 = 0.32
0.48*1 = 0.48

0.32+0.48 = 0.80

You count the 0.16 twice because it provides twice the result.

Notice how using 2 cubes with 40% chance and using 1 cube with 80% chance ultimately gives you the same expected result. It doesn't matter how you split your probability of success, it's the same in the end. All you do by changing the number of trials is altering your variance.

[quote=Axnslicer]That, and its reverse, are a common mathematical fallacy, you can't game probability like that. You're forgetting that there's a 0.16 chance of both working in a row. 0.36-0.16 = 0.2. Therefore, the chances are exactly identical, since your increased chances of both red cubes failing are equally balanced by your chances of both succeeding.

I'm actually not sure which is better between red and black for cubing epic->unique. I found that it takes 10-20 black cubes to get epic->unique and just stopped trying, since 60% unique scrolls now cost roughly 3 black cubes in Bera. I'm almost certain black is much better than red for tiering unique->leg though.[/quote]

You did your math wrong. There's a .36 chance of failing, 0.16 chance of both working assuming if it tiers from epic to unqiue and unique to legendary with keeping the same success rate and a 1 - .36 -.16 = .48 chance of either one working. This does not change the fact that the absolute chance of both cube failing is .36 and that means .36 > .2. I don't know why you take the .36 - .16 from as it has no logic whatsoever.

[quote=nhan1st]Mathematically it's better if you use the large % since it's less uncertainty and black cube is somewhat accepted to have more than 2x rate of tier up than red.

Let's say would you have an 80% with on try, or 40% success with 2 tries but for a cheaper price than one.

Chance of not working with 80% is 20% bacause 1-0.8=0.2
Chance of both not working with 40% is (1-0.4)^2=0.6%^2 = 36%.
Now you can see mathematically why using one larger chance is better.[/quote]

That, and its reverse, are a common mathematical fallacy, you can't game probability like that. You're forgetting that there's a 0.16 chance of both working in a row. 0.36-0.16 = 0.2. Therefore, the chances are exactly identical, since your increased chances of both red cubes failing are equally balanced by your chances of both succeeding.

I'm actually not sure which is better between red and black for cubing epic->unique. I found that it takes 10-20 black cubes to get epic->unique and just stopped trying, since 60% unique scrolls now cost roughly 3 black cubes in Bera. I'm almost certain black is much better than red for tiering unique->leg though.

[quote=CherryTigers] Believe me, TheCuberMan loves to cube...[/quote]

TheCuberMan does, indeed, love cubing.

honestly to get to unique i use master craftsman
master craft op

@NerdOfBera: Once you go black you never go back

I know black cubes have better tier chance but I've only tier'd one item to UNIQUE from epic with nearly 30 black cubes. However Red cubes have gotten me reallly good. 6 Reds and I legendary'd claw, 1 red and I legendary'd charm, 3 reds and I unique'd badge. It does come down to chance in the end and I just got luckier with reds

[quote=nhan1st]Mathematically it's better if you use the large % since it's less uncertainty and black cube is somewhat accepted to have more than 2x rate of tier up than red.

Let's say would you have an 80% with on try, or 40% success with 2 tries but for a cheaper price than one.

Chance of not working with 80% is 20% bacause 1-0.8=0.2
Chance of both not working with 40% is (1-0.4)^2=0.6%^2 = 36%.
Now you can see mathematically why using one larger chance is better.[/quote]

wow thanks, used 15 red cubes and never got unique, guess i gotta use black cubes

[quote=itoldyounoob]It's different for each person. Apparently it's been proven that black cubes tier up better than red, but in the end it's all RNG.
Personally, facing RNG I prefer quantity over %. If theoretically black cubes were a 10% tier up, vs red cubes being 5%, It'd be way more beneficial to have 100 red cubes instead of 60 something black cubes.
I've also tiered up a lot from epic-> unique with red. Unique > Legendary was quite difficult but I've done it a few times as well.

Just personal experience, it'll come down to your choice in the end.[/quote]

Mathematically it's better if you use the large % since it's less uncertainty and black cube is somewhat accepted to have more than 2x rate of tier up than red.

Let's say would you have an 80% with on try, or 40% success with 2 tries but for a cheaper price than one.

Chance of not working with 80% is 20% bacause 1-0.8=0.2
Chance of both not working with 40% is (1-0.4)^2=0.6%^2 = 36%.
Now you can see mathematically why using one larger chance is better.

[quote=CherryTigers]@dchen32 b-but I want to be legendary..

jk I understand what you're saying. I don't know about red cubes and tier ups. Honestly, if it came to that, I'd rather buy a 60% uniq scroll rather than using red cubes since it guarantees the increase with guardian scrolls.

I guess TS will have to try it out. Some guy in Windia named TheCuberMan who has some pretty darn godly items told me that black cubes seem to have a x1.5 chance higher than red cubes so he said that red cubes were better value, but eahh, I'm still iffy with them. Believe me, TheCuberMan loves to cube...[/quote]

Get off basilmarket.

@dchen32: Definetly not worth it q.q Thats why I hate cubing when it's not miracle time.

@dchen32 Getting from Unique to Legendary is really variable in terms of how many cubes are needed. @Jenno was cubing her gloves recently and I believe it didn't go Legendary even after 11 packs of black cubes.

@leavengelink
black cubes and still no?

@dchen32: I used 13 black cubes from Epic 3 lines to reach Unique, nope, nope & Nope I just stayed with a nice 6%hp...

[quote=dchen32]@cherrytigers is unique
red cubes r cheaper and u can typically get unique in less than 10 red cubes ( speaking from experience )[/quote]
nah probably just luck there is no method of tiering besides buying blacks. You could buy 10 packs of reds and still be in thaat same position.

I'd go with just using a Unique Potential Scroll and be done with it. It's much less luck-based, since the chance of success is a lot higher compared to using cubes (lower standard deviation = less risk). I've had some terrible experiences trying to cube from unique to legendary before, and if a scroll can circumvent all that trouble then I'd definitely use it. Since you can protect the scroll with Guardians and it will at most take a few tries, you can be pretty sure you'll succeed without using up insane amounts of funds.

@dchen32 I suppose so. Right now, most all my equips are uniq/legendary so I never have to cube from epic to unique.

The few items that I do have that are still epic such as my phantom's greed pendant or my demon avenger's fresh new equips such as the secondary or the boss arena emblem, I get master craftsman cubes from my weekly boss runs and I tend to spam those in-game cubes on my epic items until they go unique.

That's another option for TS, I suppose.^

As for unique to legendary.... oh god... I go black cube only. No way in hell I'll even consider red cubes for this. Maybe for epic to unique I'll try red cubes again, but unique to legendary, I'm only going black cubes.

@CherryTigers:
black cubes may have higher chances but they also more expensive
with the nx differences red cubes are probably more profitable if ur not unlucky

Get the uni pot scroll. It's probably a lot cheaper.

@dchen32 b-but I want to be legendary..

jk I understand what you're saying. I don't know about red cubes and tier ups. Honestly, if it came to that, I'd rather buy a 60% uniq scroll rather than using red cubes since it guarantees the increase with guardian scrolls.

I guess TS will have to try it out. Some guy in Windia named TheCuberMan who has some pretty darn godly items told me that black cubes seem to have a x1.5 chance higher than red cubes so he said that red cubes were better value, but eahh, I'm still iffy with them. Believe me, TheCuberMan loves to cube...

It's different for each person. Apparently it's been proven that black cubes tier up better than red, but in the end it's all RNG.
Personally, facing RNG I prefer quantity over %. If theoretically black cubes were a 10% tier up, vs red cubes being 5%, It'd be way more beneficial to have 100 red cubes instead of 60 something black cubes.
I've also tiered up a lot from epic-> unique with red. Unique > Legendary was quite difficult but I've done it a few times as well.

Just personal experience, it'll come down to your choice in the end.

in the end it all comes down to RNG.
even if black cubes might have a higher tier up chance you might not get any tier ups with 20 of em, but you might get a tier up with 1~2 red cubes.
a few months back during the latest miracle time events people said they got better tier up results out of red cubes, so Id go with red cubes

@SlyOne: Hurpadurp

[quote=WhoaMomma1]Use black cubes.. for tiering up and red cube for stats.. It's stated many many bloody freaking times.
And last of all PURE LUCK BASED.. You could tier up in 1 red cube.. It's ALL LUCK If you wanna rank it up so bad use black cubes DONE.[/quote]

You're a grumpy one, aren't you?

[quote=CherryTigers]Honestly I prefer using black cubes until I get legendary, then I switch to red. I've had so many bad experiences with red cubes and tiering up I don't want to even think about it.[/quote]

Lol, thanks Dennis.

Use black cubes.. for tiering up and red cube for stats.. It's stated many many bloody freaking times.
And last of all PURE LUCK BASED.. You could tier up in 1 red cube.. It's ALL LUCK If you wanna rank it up so bad use black cubes DONE.

@cherrytigers is unique
red cubes r cheaper and u can typically get unique in less than 10 red cubes ( speaking from experience )

Honestly I prefer using black cubes until I get legendary, then I switch to red. I've had so many bad experiences with red cubes and tiering up I don't want to even think about it.