General

Currently, yes. Hiddenstreet says there are also Clean Slates of various %s that drop from monsters, but those have a chance of destroying your item.

The Bounty Hunt event, which is over.

well I failed three chaos scrolls in a row.

Ya i tried 23 and none worked, i hate this event >_<

I finally got one of the dumb things to work yesterday.
I was ecstatic. =p

used 40 and only 1 worked

I've passed 2 out of 100ish. I'd say you're pretty lucky

Lol tried 20 more and still failed, so that's 48 in a row failed o.o
That's a 0.064% chance of happening
And for those people mixing up probability.

It is 4% for 30 10% scrolls to fail consecutively.
[i]A typical math problem:[/i] There are 10 marbles in a bag. 5 are red. What is the probability of picking
a red marble five times consecutively if the marble is replaced each time? [b][(1/2) ^ 5 ] or 3.125%[/b]
[i]Notice for this problem it's the combined probability. Let's say there is a 10% chance of something happening[/i]
[i]1 out of 10 times it will happen theoretically. Then you do this again. If you draw a probability tree (To help visualize) with Fail and Pass[/i]
[i]The first event will have 1 Pass and 9 Fails. Branching off those options will be 1 Pass and 9 Fails. This will create 100 events. Only 1 out[/i]
[i]of the 100 possible events will have two passes.[/i]

It is 10% for each scroll to work.
[i]A typical math problem:[/i] There are 10 marbles in a bag. 5 are red. 5 are blue. What is the probability of picking
a red marble after picking 100 blue marbles consecutively if the marble is replaced each time? [b]1/2 or 50%[/b]
[i]Notice for this one, the probability of getting that red marble hasn't changed throughout the problem[/i]
[i]If it was what's the probability of getting 100 blue marbles then 1 red marble, it would be different. It would be something close to 4*10^-29 % [/i]

https://www.google.com/#hl=en&output=search&sclient=psy-ab&q=probability+of+events+in+series

Google it, O Ignorant Ones.

Not a 4% chance, the events aren't linked. Each event has a 10% chance of occurring.

I've been really unlucky with these also, probably passed 2 or 3 out of ~40.

haha I got about... 12 and I passed 2

Out of 70 I only passed 5. My luck sucks too, I guess. Does Diligence affect clean slate chances though?

[quote=lazypando]saying that it's a glitch because you failed 30 in a row is like saying a coin is rigged if you get 6 heads in a row [/quote]

You and every1 else on this thread is so STUPID he is asking if its a glitch or if hes unlucky in no part of his post did he say ITS A GLITCH. Screw this whole community my god each year im on basil it gets worse.

OT: You seem to just be unlucky i've had 2 pass so far.

It's probably not glitched. You just had an unlucky moment.
I've failed 28 in a row (still haven't gotten one to work)
But once I got 2 in a row.
And 4% is a huge number and very likely (4 in every 100)

I used 18 and only landed 1. Idk if it's actually glitched but most of the people I've talked with had to use upwards of 25 scrolls to even land any =/

Passed 8 total.. Out of like 5x

i would say unlucky out of the 13 i got i passed 2 on my luck overall im making for phantom

I've gotten only like 20.. 2 worked on my weapon, 3 worked on my gloves, 1 worked on my Targa Hat and 2 worked on my earrings

You should try getting diligence from crafting and leveling up professions

You could just lock this thread . . . . . You got your answer, it's not glitched, your just unlucky ;/

and when you said if u had 10 10%'s, You'd pass one, thats really dumb . . . .

@bleach236: No booming! Unless, of course, Nexon glitched [i]that[/i]. But given our friend pkerzach's luck, I think we'd have found out already if that were the case

these scrolls wont boom your equip right?

[quote=NoStressdamu]Aren't the probabilities of each scroll independent of each other? It's like flipping 100 heads in a row. Just cause you got 100 in a row doesn't mean the 101st flip is more likely to be heads or tails. It's still gonna be 50-50. So just because you failed 29 in a row doesn't mean that the 30th's chances will somehow increase from 10%. You just have terrible luck.[/quote]
Apparently people are so woefully ignorant of this that the writer of the Basilmarket scrolling guide felt it necessary to make it the first entry in the list of scrolling myths. For something with a low success% that's relatively difficult to obtain, though, I can totally understand not wanting to waste more time in the case that it's a real glitch and not just terrible luck.

[quote=ox0shadow0xo]@pkerzach You have so many people calling you dumb and what not, because you asked if they were glitched straight away(in the title). If you didn't say glitch in the title and you didn't ask "Or am I just THAT unlucky?" You would have gotten less smartass answers. But you ask if it's a glitch in the title, and insinuate that it's not probable to have luck that bad, then you're going to get those kind of answers.

I failed 10 chaos scrolls in a row before. If I had made a thread about it saying "Chaos scrolls glitched?" I would have gotten insulted for days lol.[/quote]

how 2 context? i don't know

Next time, just ask others' luck. I don't think most of those who frequent Basilmarket actually know how to calculate the probability of consecutive events and all that. Be grateful that you didn't have occasion to get combinations and permutations involved.

Well, it's already been established that its not glitch+I proved that 0/30 is within the realm of probability for a 10% chance.

the amount of retards in this thread is overwhelming.
the chance to pass 1/any number is 10%
the chance to pass on the 30th try IS NOT 10%
meaning i have to fail 29 times and i have to pass the 10th

each try will always have 10% chance to pass
passing 1 out of any number will always be 10%

passing consecutively isn't 10%
failing consecutively isnt 90%
failing 29 tries and passing the 30th is not 10% but i have a 10% chance of passing the 31st

no where in this thread am i complaining about my luck.
ITT basil can't reading comprehend
Im questioning if posting this on nexon fourms would of got me lest retards posting

*edit*
comparing this to real life probability doesn't work because of it being online coding done by nexon.
[b]IF[/b] the scrolls were glitched, none would be surprised because its nexon, yet it so hard to believe when someone questions it after having bad luck?

@above
if a pull marbles out of a bag, there wouldn't be a chance that the marbles will disappear in the bag.
if i roll a dice withe numbers on it, there wouldn't be a chance where the numbers disappear.

if i use an event exclusive scroll in maplestory that is coded by nexon, there IS a chance it can be gliched as rules of physics do not apply in a video game.

Probability is only a theory.
You can roll a die 10 times and never get 6 doesn't mean the die is glitched?

Even though probability states that at 1/6 rate you should see 6 1-2 times..

I managed to get 9 and used it on my lvl 80 maple 1h mace and it worked the first time...

basilers and probability has got to be one of the most brain-killing things here, god.

op, i feel sorry for your wasted time.

Ten percents are the scrolls of failure . I know an alliance member that has farmed hundreds (well thousands of marks) and claims to have only passed two.

I failed 7/7 but it makes sense..
Just think of it as a regular 10% scroll. Well it kinda is..

It's free so why complain, just farm.

[quote=pkerzach]never knew basil can't read. Wow I learned something new today[/quote]

if you just learned this today, you have a long way to go before you should think about posting a thread again

Probability is not exactly factored into scrolls. Each scroll is an individual unto itself. So since it is an individual unto itself, it's percent is set in stone. You have a 10% chance to succeed, and a 90% chance to fail. The odds are stacked against you. You just have bad luck. I've passed 3 out of 15 used so far. So no glitch, you're luck sucks.

And all I mean by this is that these scrolls aren't stacked together in any group, no matter if you're using them one after the other. They are still individual chances.

[quote=KostyaHeals]I never knew that 4% means impossibility. Wow I learned something new today. [/quote]

never knew basil can't read. Wow I learned something new today

[quote=pkerzach]each time u have a 90% chance to fail.
failing twice in a row requires to fail the firs 90% then another 90%
hence .9 x .9
leaving u with a 81% chance to faill 2 10% scrolls in a row
keep doing that till 30 fails in a row u have a 4% chance.

if we u your logic, every 10 scrolls u toss on there you WILL ALWAYS pass 1 and u will ALWAYS fail 9[/quote]

I never knew that 4% means impossibility. Wow I learned something new today.

Percentages don't stack.

[quote=ddsushi]Also, we can find the z critical value to be 1.127, which is within the margin of error.

Solving for the chance of passing 0 out of 30, we get a zcrit value of 1.7507, which is within the commonly established margin of error of 2 standard deviations from the mean.
Also, it only takes like an hour to get 30 scrolls.[/quote]

an hour is a long time, that's 1/24th of a day.

[quote=ddsushi]You can't generalize the results of your sample to the population distribution because your sample size is not large enough.
If we apply the central limit theorem, and let "n" be the number of trials, as n approaches infinity, the true mean success rate will approach ten percent.
Your method of calculation is also wrong.
Here, read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Binomial_distribution
If you want to find the chance of passing 1/31, you can apply this formula.
Where k is the number of successes , n is the number of trials and p is the probability of success
nCk(p^k(1-p)^(n-k))
Substitution yields
31(0.1(0.9^30))
3.1(0.9)^30
~.131
This means that there is a 13.1% chance for you to pass 1/31 scrolls, with the true population distribution centered at 0.1.
@pkerzach[/quote]
Also, we can find the z critical value to be 1.127, which is within the margin of error.

[quote=pkerzach]you solved for the chance to pass 1 in 31
i was calculating the chance to fail 30 in a row
its 2 totally different things.
and yes i do realize my sample size was small but i didn't want to waste more if it really was glitched as it isn't very easy to get ur hands on 30. Hence i made this thread hopping that i was just unlucky and they do work and i didn't just waste 30 scrolls[/quote]
Solving for the chance of passing 0 out of 30, we get a zcrit value of 1.7507, which is within the commonly established margin of error of 2 standard deviations from the mean.
Also, it only takes like an hour to get 30 scrolls.

[quote=ddsushi]You can't generalize the results of your sample to the population distribution because your sample size is not large enough.
If we apply the central limit theorem, and let "n" be the number of trials, as n approaches infinity, the true mean success rate will approach ten percent.
Your method of calculation is also wrong.
Here, read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Binomial_distribution
If you want to find the chance of passing 1/31, you can apply this formula.
Where k is the number of successes , n is the number of trials and p is the probability of success
nCk(p^k(1-p)^(n-k))
Substitution yields
31(0.1(0.9^30))
3.1(0.9)^30
~.131
This means that there is a 13.1% chance for you to pass 1/31 scrolls, with the true population distribution centered at 0.1.
@pkerzach[/quote]

you solved for the chance to pass 1 in 31
i was calculating the chance to fail 30 in a row
its 2 totally different things.
and yes i do realize my sample size was small but i didn't want to waste more if it really was glitched as it isn't very easy to get ur hands on 30. Hence i made this thread hopping that i was just unlucky and they do work and i didn't just waste 30 scrolls

Compared to me? I started questioning Luck when i Blew up my ele staff... I've used over 50 on my katara.. 3 have worked.. rescrolled.. all 3 failed.

I only get cheese and cakes, who's the unlucky one?

You can't generalize the results of your sample to the population distribution because your sample size is not large enough.
If we apply the central limit theorem, and let "n" be the number of trials, as n approaches infinity, the true mean success rate will approach ten percent.
Your method of calculation is also wrong.
Here, read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Binomial_distribution
If you want to find the chance of passing 1/31, you can apply this formula.
Where k is the number of successes , n is the number of trials and p is the probability of success
nCk(p^k(1-p)^(n-k))
Substitution yields
31(0.1(0.9^30))
3.1(0.9)^30
~.131
This means that there is a 13.1% chance for you to pass 1/31 scrolls, with the true population distribution centered at 0.1.
@pkerzach

[quote=iBattleMages]By your analogy, logic doesn't make sense.[/quote]

point at deer, ask if its a bird
its a bird
cusfklogic

[quote=Erag0n1]its WAY lower than 4% O.o[/quote]
No, it's 4%. (90/100)^30 = 0.0423911583
Multiply that by 100 to get 4.24%.

[quote=Silang]@pkerzach where do you get the scrolls?[/quote]

http://www.basilmarket.com/forum/2426071

will give u all u need to know about farming these rewards

and yeh by now iv noticed due to responses and personal experience its not glitched, i was just really really unlucky/lucky

[quote=pkerzach]by that logic, if i asked a broken plane if it will fly
it will fly[/quote]
By your analogy, logic doesn't make sense.

its WAY lower than 4% O.o

i had 5,passed 3 of them,than i had 12 more and failed them all (than my friend got one and he scrolled it for me and it worked),and than after 4 more scrolls i passed the 5th one (and final one) in 4 scrolls,so it's all about luck,it's not glitched.

[quote=charles0012]When will people realize.... in these scenarios theres no 4% chance...
You have a 90% chance each time. Each event is seperate! Some cases thers an overall % but in this case there isnt.[/quote]

each time u have a 90% chance to fail.
failing twice in a row requires to fail the firs 90% then another 90%
hence .9 x .9
leaving u with a 81% chance to faill 2 10% scrolls in a row
keep doing that till 30 fails in a row u have a 4% chance.

if we u your logic, every 10 scrolls u toss on there you WILL ALWAYS pass 1 and u will ALWAYS fail 9

When will people realize.... in these scenarios theres no 4% chance...
You have a 90% chance each time. Each event is seperate! Some cases thers an overall % but in this case there isnt.